特朗普发伊朗谈判帖文前15分钟，交易员精准押注5.8亿美元做空原油

一场围绕原油市场的"精准狙击"，正在华尔街引发轩然大波。在特朗普于社交媒体发文宣称与伊朗谈判"富有成效"、触发全球能源市场大幅下跌的约15分钟前，原油期货市场已悄然出现一笔名义价值高达5.8亿美元的做空仓位。这一异乎寻常的交易时机，让市场对潜在内幕交易的担忧迅速升温。

周一纽约时间早6:49至6:50，约6200份布伦特原油与WTI期货合约在短短一分钟内完成换手。15分钟后，特朗普在Truth Social发布声明，称近期与德黑兰就终止伊朗战事进行了"富有成效的对话"。受此消息冲击，全球原油价格应声大跌，标普500指数期货与欧洲股市则随之上扬，投资者迅速降低了对地缘冲突持续化的定价。

交易时机高度可疑，市场老手直言"极不正常"

值得注意的是，布伦特与WTI两个主要原油基准的成交量同时在6:49:33骤升，标普500期货随后几乎同步跳涨，欧洲天然气基准TTF价格也在相近时间窗口出现剧烈波动。单一时间节点上多个资产类别同步异动，令这笔交易的可疑程度进一步加深。

"我在市场摸爬滚打25年的直觉告诉我，这极不正常。这是周一早晨，当天没有重大经济数据，也没有值得提前布局的美联储官员讲话——在无事件风险的日子里，这笔交易规模异常庞大。"

—— 某大型对冲基金投资组合经理

多家对冲基金将此次交易列为近几个月美国政府官方声明前出现异常大额交易的又一典型案例，类似情形此前已在Polymarket等预测市场中多次出现，涉及美国袭击伊朗、委内瑞拉等敏感事件前的高收益押注。

白宫否认，伊朗方面推波助澜

面对外界质疑，白宫发言人库什·德赛回应称，政府官员的唯一关注点是美国人民的利益，并明确表示"白宫绝不容忍任何官员利用内幕信息非法牟利"，同时将无证据的相关指控定性为"不负责任的报道"。

事件还在持续发酵。周一晚些时候，伊朗议会议长卡利巴夫在X平台发文，否认华盛顿与德黑兰之间存在任何谈判，直指"假新闻被用来操纵金融与原油市场"。此番表态迅速引发全球股市回落，原油市场则重现买盘，市场情绪再度逆转。

能源咨询机构Energy Aspects的衍生品主管坦言，该时段布伦特和WTI的成交量"高于常规水平"，但"尚不算异常庞大"，同时也指出布伦特期货与期权市场近几周已出现资金大幅流入，多头仓位积累显著——这为价格的剧烈波动提供了"必要前提"。

目前，这笔交易究竟出自单一机构还是多方之手，仍无定论。 监管机构是否会介入调查，也成为市场高度关注的焦点。围绕政治信息与金融市场之间的灰色地带，这场争议远未结束。

15 Minutes Before Trump's Iran Talks Post, Traders Placed $580M Short Bet on Crude Oil

A strikingly well-timed trade in the crude oil market is sending shockwaves through Wall Street. Approximately 15 minutes before President Trump posted on social media claiming that talks with Iran had been "productive" — triggering a sharp sell-off in global energy markets — a short position worth a nominal $580 million had already been established in crude oil futures. The uncanny precision of this trade has rapidly intensified concerns about potential insider trading.

Between 6:49 and 6:50 a.m. New York time on Monday, roughly 6,200 Brent crude and WTI futures contracts changed hands within a single minute. Fifteen minutes later, Trump published a statement on Truth Social describing "productive dialogue" with Tehran toward ending the conflict with Iran. The announcement sent global oil prices sharply lower, while S&P 500 futures and European equities rallied as investors unwound bets on a prolonged geopolitical conflict.

Suspicious Timing Raises Red Flags Among Market Veterans

What makes the trade even more eyebrow-raising is that volume in both Brent and WTI spiked simultaneously at 6:49:33, with S&P 500 futures jumping almost instantly afterward, and the European natural gas benchmark TTF also experiencing violent moves around the same time window. The synchronized movement across multiple asset classes at a single precise moment only deepens suspicion.

"My 25 years of market instincts tell me this is highly abnormal. It was a Monday morning with no major economic data and no Fed speakers worth front-running — on a day with zero event risk, the size of that trade was extraordinary."

— Portfolio manager at a major hedge fund

Several hedge funds have flagged this episode as yet another example of unusually large trades appearing just before official U.S. government announcements — a pattern that has surfaced repeatedly in recent months on prediction platforms like Polymarket, involving high-profit bets ahead of sensitive events such as U.S. strikes on Iran and Venezuela.

White House Denies Wrongdoing; Iran's Denial Adds Fuel to the Fire

In response to mounting scrutiny, White House spokesman Kush Desai pushed back, stating that the administration's sole focus is the well-being of the American people, and firmly declaring that "the White House will not tolerate any government official illegally profiting from insider information." He dismissed allegations made without evidence as "irresponsible reporting."

The story took another twist later on Monday when Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Qalibaf posted on X, flatly denying that any negotiations had taken place between Washington and Tehran, and accusing "fake news" of being used "to manipulate financial and oil markets." The denial promptly reversed market sentiment — global equities pulled back while crude oil saw renewed buying interest.

Tim Skye, head of derivatives at energy consultancy Energy Aspects, acknowledged that Brent and WTI volumes during that window were "higher than I would typically expect," though "not enormously outsized." He also noted a significant influx of capital into Brent futures and options markets in recent weeks, with long positions building considerably — a dynamic he described as a near-prerequisite for such dramatic price swings.

Whether Monday's trades originated from a single actor or multiple parties remains unknown. Whether regulators will launch a formal investigation is now a question the market is watching closely. The controversy over the blurry line between political intelligence and financial markets is far from over.