全球地缘风险升温，A股为何更抗跌？高盛维持增持：独特性与低波动性提升吸引力

当中东局势的炮火硝烟弥漫至全球金融市场，亚太多数主要股指应声下跌，日经225与韩国KOSPI均跌逾2%，而A股却逆势收涨，上证综指报收3923.29点，涨幅0.24%。这一反差，折射出中国资产在地缘风险冲击下日益凸显的韧性与独特性。高盛最新研报明确维持对中国A股和H股"增持"评级，并建议投资者在当前价位建立战略性仓位。

A股抗跌的底气，首先来自中国相对独立的能源结构。数据显示，2024年原油与液化天然气仅占中国一次能源消费的28%，处于全球主要经济体最低水平；可再生能源发电占比已从十年前的26%跃升至40%。这意味着油价波动对中国经济的直接冲击远低于其他高度依赖化石燃料的国家。与此同时，中国石油战略储备接近12亿桶，即便在极端情境下亦可支撑逾110天的消耗需求，能源安全边际相当充裕。

低相关性与低波动率，A股分散化价值凸显

从市场表现维度来看，A股与国际油价的相关性历来偏低——自2010年以来，各行业周度回报与布伦特原油价格之间的相关系数长期维持在较低水平。在此次石油冲击中，A股和H股经波动率调整后的表现显著跑赢同类资产，过去一个月夏普比率分别为-0.7和-0.6，而与标普500的52周滚动回报相关性也仅为0.2至0.3。低波动、低相关，正是在不确定性加剧时代A股最具说服力的"防御属性"。

高盛指出："随着经济增长和地缘政治风险的增加，对'独特性'和'低波动性'的需求将会上升，这将增加A股的投资吸引力。"

值得关注的是，目前外资对A股的持股比例仅为3%，相对于国内利率水平而言股票估值仍属低廉，叠加国家队等政策性支撑持续有效，高盛将上述因素共同归纳为支撑"慢牛"格局的结构性逻辑——即A股将持续为投资者提供可观的阿尔法机会。

AI科技成为外资共识赛道，算力与应用齐头并进

除防御属性外，AI科技板块正成为外资机构在A股布局的核心进攻方向。高盛认为，从"DeepSeek时刻"到"OpenClaw"的出现，再到国内Token使用量的爆发式增长，中国AI已充分验证其在大规模应用与商业变现层面的竞争力。支撑这一判断的核心要素包括：庞大的用户基础、开源且能力领先的语言模型、极具竞争力的推理成本，以及世界前沿的物理AI制造实力。

多家机构亦持相似观点。摩根士丹利基金指出，AI板块业绩确定性强，国内主流平台的模型调用量出现约10倍增长，中东局势反而进一步强化了算力涨价预期，这一趋势短期内难以逆转。摩根资产管理则强调，历史上地缘冲突对市场的扰动周期通常短于经济衰退，AI电力、算电协同及自主可控方向同时具备政策托底与海外需求双重支撑，配置价值突出。

综合来看，在全球地缘风险持续扰动的背景下，中国A股凭借能源结构优势、低波动防御特性以及AI科技板块的强劲业绩预期，正展现出有别于其他新兴市场的独特投资价值。对于寻求组合分散化的全球投资者而言，当前或许正是重新审视A股战略配置的重要窗口期。

Why A-Shares Are More Resilient Amid Global Geopolitical Risks: Goldman Sachs Maintains Overweight on China Stocks

As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East send shockwaves through global financial markets, most major Asia-Pacific indices fell sharply — the Nikkei 225 and South Korea's KOSPI both dropped more than 2% — yet China's A-share market bucked the trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.24% at 3,923.29 points. This contrast highlights the growing resilience and distinctiveness of Chinese assets amid geopolitical shocks. Goldman Sachs, in its latest research report, reaffirmed its "Overweight" rating on both China A-shares and H-shares, recommending that investors build strategic positions at current price levels.

The underlying strength of A-shares begins with China's relatively insulated energy structure. In 2024, crude oil and liquefied natural gas accounted for just 28% of China's primary energy consumption — among the lowest of any major economy globally. Meanwhile, the share of renewable energy in total power generation has surged from 26% a decade ago to 40% today. This means that oil price swings carry far less direct impact on the Chinese economy than on nations more heavily dependent on fossil fuels. On top of that, China's strategic petroleum reserves stand at nearly 1.2 billion barrels, sufficient to cover more than 110 days of consumption even under the extreme assumption of zero crude imports — leaving a comfortable energy security buffer.

Low Correlation and Low Volatility: A-Shares' Diversification Value Stands Out

From a market performance perspective, A-shares have historically maintained a low correlation with international oil prices. Since 2010, the weekly return correlation between most domestic sectors and Brent crude has remained at subdued levels. During this latest oil shock, both A-shares and H-shares significantly outperformed peers on a volatility-adjusted basis, posting Sharpe ratios of -0.7 and -0.6, respectively, over the past month, while their 52-week rolling return correlations with the S&P 500 were only 0.2 and 0.3. Low volatility and low correlation are precisely the "defensive attributes" that make A-shares most compelling in an era of heightened uncertainty.

As Goldman Sachs noted: "As economic growth and geopolitical risks increase, demand for 'uniqueness' and 'low volatility' will rise, enhancing the investment appeal of A-shares."

It is also worth noting that foreign ownership of A-shares currently stands at just 3%, valuations remain cheap relative to domestic interest rates, and policy support mechanisms — such as the "national team" — remain firmly in place. Goldman Sachs identifies these factors collectively as the structural pillars of a "slow bull" thesis, suggesting that A-shares will continue to offer investors substantial alpha opportunities regardless of portfolio style or strategy.

AI Tech Emerges as the Consensus Growth Theme Among Foreign Institutions

Beyond their defensive appeal, AI and technology sectors are fast becoming the core offensive allocation focus for foreign institutions in A-shares. Goldman Sachs argues that from the landmark "DeepSeek moment" to the emergence of "OpenClaw" and the explosive surge in domestic token consumption, China's AI ecosystem has firmly validated its competitiveness in large-scale application and commercial monetization. The key pillars of this thesis include a massive user base, open-source and highly capable language models, fiercely competitive inference costs, and world-class physical AI manufacturing capabilities.

Multiple institutions share this view. Morgan Stanley Fund highlights the strong earnings visibility within the AI sector, noting that major domestic platforms have seen model call volumes grow by approximately tenfold. Counterintuitively, escalating Middle East tensions have reinforced expectations of further computing price increases — a trend unlikely to reverse in the near term. Morgan Asset Management China adds that historically, market disruptions caused by geopolitical conflicts tend to be shorter-lived than economic recessions, and that themes such as AI power infrastructure, computing-energy integration, and domestic technology self-reliance carry dual tailwinds from both policy support and overseas demand.

In summary, against a backdrop of persistent global geopolitical turbulence, China's A-share market is demonstrating a distinctive investment profile — underpinned by structural energy advantages, low-volatility defensive characteristics, and robust earnings expectations in the AI technology sector — that sets it apart from most other emerging markets. For global investors seeking portfolio diversification, the current moment may represent a critical window to reassess the strategic value of A-share allocations.